Visa Bulletin Predictions For October 2012

Discussion in 'Discussions' started by Benzbabu, Jun 28, 2012.

  1. Benzbabu

    Benzbabu

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    Hello,
    Please review the below document to get an idea of the priority date movement starting October 2012. The below is a snippet from AILA document cited below.
    Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand (Updated 6/27/12)

    "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jun. 27, 2012)"
    On Tuesday, June 19, 2012, Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 and beyond with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Here are notes from that discussion:
    2012 and 2013 News
    • In October 2012 (beginning of the 2013 fiscal year), the EB-2 cut-off dates for China-Mainland born and India, which are currently "unavailable," will move to August or September 2007 (China may be slightly better). It is unlikely that the cut-off dates will move forward at all for the first two quarters of FY2013. If they do, it will only be if the Visa Office is convinced that there is insufficient demand for the rest of the year. Mr. Oppenheim's office already has 17,000 EB-2 cases for natives of India, China, and worldwide with priority dates after January 1, 2009, pre-adjudicated. There will be a lot of cases queued up for adjudication in October 2012, and it will take some time to get through them.
    • EB-2 worldwide will be current in October 2012.
    • If USCIS approves many pending cases during the month of June, the worldwide EB-2 category may retrogress or become unavailable for the rest of the year.
    • Why did the priority dates move ahead so far and then retrogress so drastically? USCIS encouraged Mr. Oppenheim's office to move the categories forward so much in January, February, and March of 2012. USCIS reported that they had a lot of approved petitions but they were not receiving enough I-485s. USCIS wanted the cut-off dates moved even more in March 2012, but DOS resisted, since there already appeared to be heavy demand. In February, the demand had already increased 50%. In addition, USCIS said that they believed that adjudication of EB-1 cases would be at the same rate as last fiscal year, and this was not the case. It could be due to the fact that many EB-1 cases had very long adjudication times with USCIS. In addition, EB-5 usage has been higher this year. Unused EB-5 cases fall into EB-1, and unused EB-1 cases fall into EB-2.
    • Applicants from China and India who filed will be waiting years for adjudication of their I-485s.
    • USCIS also advised a 4-6 month timeline in the processing of I-485s, and then they processed a lot of cases in 3 months, which increased the demand as well for visa numbers this fiscal year.
    • The group of cases that were filed in July and August of 2007, when all employment-based categories were made "current," were all completed by November 2011, and at that point, Mr. Oppenheim's office had to depend on USCIS estimates for adjudication of cases. Mr. Oppenheim's office had no pre-adjudicated cases that gave him a point of reference to determine what was left or pending.
    • Mr. Oppenheim's office has been very clear that they do not like retrogression.

    Going forward:
    Another problem with trying to predict the demand is that no one is keeping statistics on EB-3-EB-2 "upgrades." Upgrades continue to be a big "wildcard," as no one knows how many are being used per year and no one is tracking it. Mr. Oppenheim confirmed his previous comments that both cases for a person remain open (so it looks like two numbers are being used) if a person is upgrading from EB-3 to EB-2, and only when the green card is approved does the duplicate file number go away. At that time, Mr. Oppenheim's office is told by USCIS to cancel a pending EB-3 case.
    Mr. Oppenheim's office believes that there are 10,000 to 15,000 numbers used for upgrades every fiscal year. In March 2012, alone, 3,200 numbers were used to approve China and India adjustments that were EB-3-EB-2 upgrades. The actual break down was 2,800 from India and 500 from China. All of these cases had priority dates before 2007, so clearly, they were upgrades. For example, 363 of the 2,800 EB-2 cases from India that were approved in March 2012, had a 2005 priority date. In March 2012, alone, over 1,000 numbers were used for applications from the worldwide quota that had priority dates before 2010, so these were likely upgrades as well.
    USCIS previously insisted that the number of upgrade cases was insignificant.
    Mr. Oppenheim's office tries to use 13,500 visas per quarter for all EB cases. This office already has more than 17,000 in line for FY2013.



  2. subba rao

    subba rao

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    Ippatiki ippudu citizen ship icche countries emanna untaya!!!! [​IMG]
  3. Chinnu

    Chinnu

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    blenzblaaa nenu inka ee gc process gurinchi telusukovadam modalu pettaledu
    so almost no avidea
    naalage inka chala mandi untaru manollu db lo
    nuvvu maa andariki paarthaya pratibodhitam cheyyalsindi ga manavi..
    adi eppudu ela anedi taravata deciding seddam :b6dop1 th::
  4. Howard Roark

    Howard Roark

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    afghanistan..pakistan :p
  5. Chinnu

    Chinnu

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    nannu adigite ade bhesht baa
    alanti countries lo citizenship teeseskoni
    akkadininchi malli us ki pettukunte.. picha lite ga aipotademo :D
    vatti india and china ne kada intha competition
  6. subba rao

    subba rao

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    edanna african, europian country ayite better emo kada bhayya... Malla Asian ante - cheeeeee
    • Dislike Dislike x 1
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    • List
  7. Chocolateboy

    Chocolateboy

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    :3D Smiles 27::
  8. Howard Roark

    Howard Roark

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    african ayite malli kashtalu untayi US ravadaniki..european countries lo 5-6 yrs padtadi mostly..chala matuku language test pedtaaru..so picha lite adi kuda..i dont know about swiss, liechtenstein etc..
  9. subba rao

    subba rao

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    South America emanna work out ayye chances unnayi antava bhayya [​IMG]
  10. Howard Roark

    Howard Roark

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    emo no idea..US lo unte vastadi ga mellaga..
  11. subba rao

    subba rao

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    vaadu undaniyyali kada... Asalu ikkada undoccho ledo annadi oka 2 months la telustadi...
    Ippudu not on a valid visa!!! H1 request pending la undi kabatti undanistunru [​IMG]
  12. Chinnu

    Chinnu

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    vachettadi le baa tension padaku
  13. subba rao

    subba rao

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    No Tension [​IMG]
  14. Bruce Lee

    Bruce Lee

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    ee 2 months la aa hooter pori patainchi matter set cheyyi..GC ochesthadi(just kidding)
  15. KINDAL

    KINDAL

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    africa adavullo bathuku po.... kanna bhumi ni chee antava....

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